· Amidst high volatility, with no strong specific direction for the Agri counters, a moderate recovery was noted for most as demand (both on the domestic and export front) started rising. With a 63% rainfall deficit in January, the scope for improvement in crop productivity seems bleak even as sowing area improved over last few weeks.
· Rising demand in coming weeks could support the prices. However the uptrend may be limited from arrivals of Rabi crops.
· Closure of Chinese markets is likely to adversely affect the export demand and this has kept pressure on prices in the Indian markets also.
· Falling Pulses imports amidst rising demand and prospects of a fall in production kept trend firm for Chana. However, profit booking at the higher levels limited the uptrend after the recent rise in rates.
· Through creating a buffer stock, sale of imported pulses at cheaper rates and imposition of stock limits on traders and departmental stores, licensed food processors, importers and exporters, releasing seized stocks, Govt has been partially able to check the uptrend.
· As per report from Ministry of Agriculture, Rabi Pulses sowing (as on 28th Jan) stood at 139.08 lakh ha vs 143.01 lakh ha same period last year. Till 16 Jan, Maharashtra sowing reported at 15.03 lakh ha vs 12.79 lakh ha same period last year. Chana sowing at 14.22 lakh ha vs 12.18 lakh ha. Karnataka production expected to fall to 4.94 lakh tons vs 6.75 despite rise in sowing area to 14.95 lakh ha vs 10.41as on Jan 7. AP sowing area as on Dec 30 stood at 4.04 lakh ha vs 3.26 ha same time last year as per Govt agencies.
· Normal yield could get adversely affected despite rise in sowing area in many states due to higher temperatures and lower soil moisture (because of unsatisfactory monsoons) slowing down normal growth of plant.
· CCEA cleared a proposal to create 150,000 tons buffer stock through domestic procurement at market rates. Of this, 50,000 tons would be purchased from farmers during 2015-16 kharif season, while another 1 lakh tons from rabi crop of the same year. Govt agencies would be engaged in purchasing crop from farmers. This is done to encourage farmers to increase sowing for Pulses. In 2013-14(July to June), India produced 19.2 million tons pulses, which fell to 17.38 million tons in 2014-15 due to weak monsoon. The Centre expects production in 2015-16 to be 18.32 million tons. Annual domestic consumption is around 22-23 million tons.
· With reports of Myanmar production for Tur reportedly on the higher side, this could cause prices to cool down in Indian markets as India imports from there.