Profit booking might come as market has taken a sharp jump due to strong FIIs inflow. The Reserve Bank of India will announce the Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 on January 28, 2014. Going ahead, trend in investment by FIIs, trend in other global emerging markets and the movement of rupee against the dollar will dictate the trend on the domestic bourses.
Investment Idea – Cairn India Ltd.
CMP – ` 319 Target – ` 360 The key value driver for Cairn will be new discoveries going forward and the expected ramp up at its Rajasthan fields. With production from the Rajasthan fields set to rise further and strong realizations, the company is expected to continue its good operational performance. Based on the new contracts concluded, the discount to Brent will be 8-13% vs. 10-15% cent currently, which will boost profitability for Cairn.
Technical Outlook for CNX Nifty
In December, Nifty formed a new life-time high at 6415.25 but finally settled at 6304; gaining more than two percent on monthly basis. Considering the last month’s close, the bias would continue to remain on the positive side but the volatility will keep the traders on their toes. Hence, traders are advised to concentrate more on stock specific front with overall trend and key levels (mentioned above) of benchmark index as background before positing the trades in January month.
The December expiry gained by 3.1% reversing the losses of the last month, Nifty made a new all-time high during the month. Total rollover of 80% (6m-avg 78%) and Nifty rollover was at 65% (6m-avg 60%). The December futures traded at a premium of 60-65 points between the two months.
The sectors witnessing strong roll overs are Infrastructure, Fertilizers and Banking sectors while weak rollovers were in FMCG, Capital Goods, and Power sectors. Among the individual stock with high roll overs were UPL, Mcdowell-N, Glen mark and Federal Bank while stocks like Power Grid, IOB, HDIL and Arvind had weak rollovers.